Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.