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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.